What went wrong?

Fight Club

There’s a notion among GWOT veterans in the US that we lost the war in Iraq (not really) and Afghanistan because the US “didn’t go hard enough” or made stupid decisions militarily. That we lost and our comrades died because of bad generals. These veterans then go on famous podcasts and TV stations and repeat their assessment of the situation. After all, who would understand the war better than the veterans who fought and bled in it?

As a veteran myself who’s been in these conversations with other veterans more times than I can count, I can tell you that they’re wrong. If you didn’t serve, you can’t say that of course, because they’ll try to pull rank on you. What if I told you that 90%+ of veterans don’t know much about that war? How could I possibly say something like this? What a lot of people don’t understand is that the military is very job focused. Each service member has a very small role to play and, relatively, they all do a good job. But in contrast, the US Department of Defense is a huge organization, probably the biggest in the world. Even some generals working at the Pentagon don’t fully grasp the whole thing. It’s almost impossible.

Now ask yourself, is Sgt. Highspeed Joe on the “Whiskeydink Podcast” telling you about a war, or is he telling you about his tiny role in a huge multi continent war that he was fortunate enough to be a part of? If you want to test this, ask Highspeed Joe: “The bullets in your rifle in Afghanistan, how did they get to you?” I believe that people in the US not understanding this partly led us to our situation today.

Blame can also be put on America’s education system. Kids should get assigned at least one Max Hastings style book about a big war so they could grasp the complexity. Instead, in the US you get one big old history book that in three or four paragraphs pays lip service to a war and then you just move on. I always say that US citizens are the most powerful people in the world. It’s your duty as an American to learn as much about the world and life as you can. You are the most powerful country. The world depends on your vote. But uh… God help us.

How does this relate to Iran today?

Delusions of the Honored

The Trump administration came into power telling themselves and telling us that they were not going to repeat the same mistakes as Bush. It feels like that’s all they’re doing, so much so that it almost feels like they’re playing prevent defense. The issue is these guys don’t really read books. They don’t actually understand at a high level why Bush failed. They know the Fox News talking points and they know “Highspeed Joe’s” point of view. That’s about it.

Where Bush failed didn’t have much to do with the military. Bush failed because of politics. Obama came after him and failed again because of politics. Trump after him failed again because of politics. Unfortunately the hot potato blew up in Biden’s face because he too didn’t understand the politics.

What do I mean by politics? I mean people.

The US failed to understand that if you abruptly fire a bunch of people who know nothing but power and guns, like Saddam’s Fedayeen, they’re going to be recruited by people looking for their services. In Iraq’s case, jihadist guerrilla groups. The US failed to get the people of Afghanistan to care about their democracy project. The US failed to care about democracy in Afghanistan themselves whenever they chose to meddle in it. The US failed when they negotiated the withdrawal with the Taliban without involving the Afghan government.

Do you see how none of this involves any gunfighting? Just people talking. Politics.

Even though we must blame these presidents for their lack of wisdom, I almost don’t want to. This is very much a problem that has plagued America for a long time. There are no mandatory leadership institutions in the US that retain this kind of knowledge over time and teach it. If we did, would people even listen or just call them the “deep state” and move on?

Everyone wants to talk about “military failures,” when honestly, the Taliban just played better politics than the US did. After the withdrawal agreement, the Taliban began spreading disinformation about what the deal was and bribing local tribal leaders. They told people that the Afghan government was abandoned by the West and that the US handed leadership to the Taliban. They also told them that cooperating with the illegitimate government in Kabul was now treason. That was not the deal at all, but that was what people heard. The Taliban stepped up attacks on Afghan security forces but not US troops, furthering their propaganda. After that Europe withdrew and the US withdrawal was announced. Of course Afghanistan fell so quickly. They already won psychologically. The US and Afghan government failed to stop the disinformation and support each other.

War is a tool that should be used to bring about favorable conditions to further your political goals. In this instance the Taliban played it flawlessly. Think about it, every successful US war in history were succeeded because they achieved a desirable political end state. Japan, Germany, South Korea, Bush wasn’t stupid when we was nation building, just in over his head.

Iran

The current war in Iran failed before it even started. Why? again, wars should always be fought with the goal of an achievable political end state. Even better if it’s a tool of last resort. Why? Because the politics of a state has a huge influence on the physical outcomes of that state.

For example, let’s say someone points a gun at you and steals your car. What would you do? Eventually go buy another car, right? Why? That person taking your car didn’t change the fact that you like having a car. They didn’t change your politics. In the grand scheme of your life, they didn’t do anything.

The US secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, stated multiple times over the last two weeks that the mission of the US is not regime change.

Hegseth: “The U.S. has short term, clearly defined goals in Iran. First, destroying Iranian missile stockpiles, missile launchers and their defense industrial base. Second, destroy the Iranian navy. And finally, permanently deny Iran the ability to have nuclear weapons.”

What’s wrong with this list of goals? No desired political end state. What’s going to happen after? Iranian regime are going to build it again, and even better this time, with tons of new lessons learned from the war. So did you win anything? No. You just wasted a bunch of money that could have been used on something more productive. Calculating opportunity costs to you and your allies is important.

DoD aside, Trump seems to be a slight bit wiser in this arena than the likes of Hegseth. Trump is talking about political outcomes. So far it seems like he wanted a Venezuela style situation:

“The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates. It’s not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead.”

It seems like the war itself undermined his desired political outcome. So we already got the cart before the horse. Both him and Israeli prime minister Netanyahu also want the Iranian people to rise against the regime. But thousands of them died doing just that two months ago. The people that did it to them weren’t shooting missiles. They were shooting AKs.

Is there a plan for the thousands of guys in the streets with AKs? No. Is there clear communication to the Iranian people? No. Just confusion. One side is talking “no regime change” and another side is talking “kind of” regime change.

What is the common theme here? The politics is all fucked up, and if that’s fucked up, so is everything below it.

Ok I’m at 1500+ words, enough writing for today. We’ll talk more next week.

Let’s Begin.

I’ve been looking online and hearing a lot of people giving their takes on why the Iran war started. Their reasoning ranges from “Trump did it because of China” to “the U.S. always planned to do this and it’s where the U.S. empire will fall.” While these takes may seem plausible, the people making them are making fundamental analytical mistakes. I don’t look down on them too much because when I was new to geopolitical analysis I used to make the same mistake. When you’re analyzing why something happened, you have to look at the sequence of events that led up to it. You can’t just invoke, for example, “China” as the reason out of nowhere like most people who call themselves analysts do. Just because this war might affect China in some way, it doesn’t mean the US reasoning had anything to do with China.

For example, let’s say a man’s wife was cheating on him with a police officer. With no knowledge of the infidelity, he ends up committing assault on a co-worker. The officer that arrives on the scene and arrests him is the same one that’s having sex with his wife. An amateur analyst would say, “well the officer arrested him so he can have his wife to himself.” But if we follow the sequence of events we know that this is not the case. The officer might benefit from this, but that’s not why the man got arrested.

So let’s analyze the sequence of events:

During Trump’s first term, he assassinated Qasem Soleimani, head of Iran’s IRGC Quds Force. After that, the Iranians were looking for revenge. There was intelligence that Iran was trying to get Trump assassinated. We don’t know the validity of this intelligence, as it’s still classified, but we do know that Trump was informed. There have also been multiple plots and attempts on Trump’s life, some of which were linked to Iran.

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After Trump took power in early 2025, he began engaging in nuclear talks with Iran. Trump had sent a letter directly to Khamenei demanding full nuclear disarmament within two months, offering sanctions relief in return. In the middle of these negotiations, Israel initiated a surprise attack on Iran, now known as the 12 Day War. During that war, the Trump administration saw the opportunity to bomb nuclear facilities in Iran, and they took it. You could also say the Israelis presented Trump with the opportunity to bypass negotiations and potentially destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities by creating favorable battlefield conditions.

The White House claimed victory, but unfortunately a lot of analysts knew this was not the case. I talked about the attack in detail here:

Now we fast forward to late last year to early January, when major protests erupted all across Iran. Trump encouraged the people to rise up and explicitly warned the Iranians not to kill protesters, or else.

The Iranians didn’t listen and massacred/executed thousands of people.

Trump publicly gave them a red line, and they crossed it. This put Trump in a bad position, optics wise. Those people got killed partially because of his encouragement, and he didn’t have a big enough force in the region at the time to do anything about it. So it seemed like all those people died for nothing.

With some encouragement from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and neoconservatives like Lindsey Graham, Trump ordered the U.S. military to start a major force buildup in the region. The Trump administration seemingly engaged in some fake negotiations with the Iranian regime just for PR purposes. I personally knew these negotiations weren’t going anywhere.

Another force that was pulling Trump toward war is a logistical one. There is always a psychological point of no return when it comes to logistics. You spent so much money moving equipment that it feels like a huge waste not to use it. And it is. Now, a formidable person can overcome this, but the chances are low that Trump would have that kind of impulse control.

And the war started.

Trump, who already had personal beef with Iran, created a red line. The Iranians crossed it. The Israelis and neocons encouraged him and he decided to do it. That’s it. This is not about nuclear weapons. There’s no bigger “4D chess” geopolitical analysis. That’s it.

I’m not going too deep into the backstory of the U.S. vs. Venezuela. I already made a YouTube video on the topic (click here).

Phase 1 - Information Warfare

Trump’s war against Maduro started with information warfare, as it should. Before a country takes military action against another, it’s good practice to shape the political environment and get supporters on your side. For example, in 2003, before the U.S. invaded Iraq, they argued that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. This wasn’t long after the insane 9/11 attack in NYC, so people were more inclined to listen to that kind of rhetoric. Before Russia went to war with Ukraine, they argued it was because of NATO expansion and a whole slew of other reasons. One of the best byproducts of this political move is that people will go on TV and social media to argue for your “cause.”

Trump shaped the political environment for his action against Maduro, but in a way not seen in this era.

His stated reasons are:

1. Oil, Land, and other assets that Venezuela stole from the U.S.

2. Narco-terrorism, Human Trafficking, and Murder

3. Illegal Aliens being sent to the U.S. by Maduro

The stated reasons don’t have to be true, but they do have to be half true. War for oil is not very popular, especially not after the Middle East wars. It was unclear to me why anyone would include that point in their public reasoning. Usually, something like that you keep quiet.

One point they emphasized that seemed to stick was the narco-terrorism angle. The way the Trump team handled this was through a bit of hybrid warfare. Yes, what the Russians are known for (video on that). The U.S. designated various criminal organizations in Venezuela as terrorist groups and claimed that Maduro was their leader. This then allowed the US military to conduct airstrikes on small boats allegedly shipping drugs out of Venezuela. The Trump admin would publish these strikes as part of their information campaign. I doubt these boats had anything to do with Maduro himself, but it doesn’t matter. Like I said, this stuff just has to be half true. Venezuela doesn’t really produce drugs, but it is one of many transshipment routes. Corrupt people in the government are sometimes involved or turn a blind eye. That connection is good enough for propaganda purposes, and the Trump team used it.

I had my doubts this would work, until I started seeing people on Twitter/X and YouTube repeating the talking point: “They’re shipping drugs to the U.S. and killing Americans.” I told myself… ahh… it actually worked.

Phase 2 - Spinning The Block

Now that the information warfare has been going on for a couple of months, the military has been doing tons of rehearsals. U.S. intelligence has been on the ground, creating spies and shaping the environment for military action. It’s time to spin the block.

Part I: Intelligence & Preparation

• Pattern of Life: Intelligence teams mapped Maduro’s movements, residence, and personal habits.

• Staging: US forces were ready by early December, awaiting a specific window to minimize civilian casualties and maximize tactical surprise.

• Information Warfare: US Law enforcement agents are ready to take part in the operation to frame the apprehension as an “arrest” and not a kidnaping.

• Holding Pattern: US forces remained at high readiness through the Christmas and New Year period, waiting for a break in adverse weather.

Part II: Infiltration & Suppression (Friday 1/2/2025)

• 22:46 EST: President issues the “Go” order.

• Launch: 150+ aircraft across the Western Hemisphere begin coordinated flight paths.

• Infiltration: US Special operators and federal agents onboard special helicopters cross into Venezuelan territory at 100 ft above ground level to evade detection.

• SEAD Operations: SpaceCom, CyberCom, and Joint Air Components from the US Navy, Marines, and Air Force begin dismantling and disabling Venezuelan air defense systems to clear a corridor for the helicopters.

Part III: The Breach

• 01:01 EST (02:01 Local): Primary extraction force arrives at Maduro’s compound inside a large Venezuelan military base.

• Engagement: Helicopters take initial fire upon arrival; US forces respond with overwhelming force in self-defense. One aircraft sustained damage but remained airworthy.

• Apprehension: Ground teams isolate the objective and secured Maduro and his wife with zero US fatalities.

Part IV: Exfiltration & Recovery

• Withdrawal: Helicopters extract the ground force under continuous close air support (CAS) and suppressive fire during multiple engagements.

• 03:29 EST: All US forces clear Venezuelan airspace.

• Processing: Maduro and his wife are embarked aboard the USS Iwo Jima for transport.

Regime Change?

Although Maduro was removed, his regime remains in power, with his vice president Delcy Rodriguez supposedly at the helm. The Venezuelan government is a complex organization with various powerful players controlling different sectors. Removing Maduro doesn’t collapse the regime itself. The Trump administration is keeping U.S. forces on the coast of Venezuela to keep military pressure on the regime.

The Arguments

These are not necessarily my personal feelings, just things to think about when you’re making up your mind.

For

Propaganda and information warfare aside, the positive arguments for what the Trump administration did are that Maduro is an extremely incompetent leader who drove his country into the ground. Removing him could potentially bring Venezuela back to being a rich, thriving country again. The Maduro regime was also friendly with Russia, China, and Cuba. Knocking Venezuela out of that network could have some positive effects for the U.S.

The pro arguments all hinge on the U.S. properly handling the internal politics and economics of Venezuela.

I could talk about the “Big Oil” argument from Trump, but it’s not very good. It’s actually expensive, hard for regular people to understand, not popular, and easily dismantled. We made it easy to understand with a TikTok video we put out though (link).

Against & Questions

Like I said before, the Venezuelan government is a complex organization with various powerful players controlling different sectors. It’s unclear how the U.S. will be able to fully exert control over the country without boots on the ground. Does VP now president Delcy Rodriguez have enough support to keep all these players on her side? US can only kidnap so many people, and there’s the possibility of creating power vacuums that lead to chaos and warring factions. These people are not just going to lay down and give up their money and power.

How will the U.S. secure elections without boots on the ground? If that’s even the goal. Will the U.S. rig these elections like they did in Afghanistan?

What if the people of Venezuela themselves want something that’s against the Trump administration’s interests? For example, what if they want to keep all of their oil nationalized? Does the U.S. order Caracas to kill protestors and rioters too, or…? Is the U.S. going full colonialism or just halfway?

Another argument against is that it puts Europe in a crazy position. Europe is supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion. The main argument from the Europeans is that Russia’s invasion was illegal and that Putin can’t just take over countries whenever he feels like it. Trump said himself the U.S. is now in charge of Venezuela. Europe needs Trump to support Ukraine, so they’re not speaking out against Trump’s moves and end up looking like complete hypocrites.

This move bolstered Putin’s worldview that one can just take whatever they want if they’re strong enough. At the same time, it exacerbates Putin’s paranoia that this is what “the West” is looking to do to him. The swiftness of the U.S. military operation also highlights the weakness of the Russian military. They’re incapable of removing Zelensky, and that puts internal pressure on Putin. This might force him to start taking drastic measures.

A really complicated mixed bag here.

So many questions, not many answers. As always, thanks for reading.

TRUMP

Trump was the main character of 2025 and probably remains that for the next two years. Whether we like it or not, we are living in his era. The history books written about this time will have his name all over them. The US is the most powerful and influential country in the world. Even with the separation of powers embedded into its system, the president still has an outsized effect on the world.

Global Tariffs

The first thing Trump did was tariff Canada and Mexico, the US’s two biggest trading partners. After those tariffs, they moved on to tariff the rest of the world. A lot of people were saying it was just leverage for negotiations and that he was not for real. This theory was proven wrong time and time again. Every trade agreement that the Trump admin completed still included tariffs. This confirmed the idea that Trump actually just enjoys across the board tariffs as an economic tool, and there is not much more to it than that.

There is also a theory that the goal of the global tariffs is to slow down Chinese manufacturing. While that might partly be true, it doesn’t explain tariffs on places like Ivory Coast, for example. While the US does not want transshipment, it already has a rule that goods face a 40% tariff if the origin is misdeclared. Tariffing the whole earth instead of just enforcing that rule would be very inefficient.

Link: Tariff tracker

Are the tariffs effective? Not really. Besides bringing the US government some extra revenue, the tariffs have not achieved the stated goals of the Trump admin.

• Return manufacturing

• Pay off national debt

• More jobs

• Replace income tax

None of these things happened, and some even got worse. So the global tariffs are largely a waste of time, as I predicted. The only way this could have worked is with highly targeted tariffs at specific industries and good industrial policy.

Where I was wrong: I underestimated how resilient and dynamic modern nation states are. While tariffs are a drag on the economy, the US still trucks along. Certain industries even overperform, shouldering the GDP numbers. I overestimated how long it would take for people to start feeling the effects. Although the other side of the argument is how much higher GDP could have been without the global tariffs. As for China, even with their economy in the toilet, they’re also trucking along.

Ukraine War

Before we talk about this, we have to talk about the environment Europe as a whole found itself in. When the Trump admin came into office, one of the first things they did was send out Vice President JD Vance to speak at the Munich Security Conference. JD took the time to compare Europe to the Soviet Union and speak ill of their internal politics. Obviously, this rubbed European leaders the wrong way. This would be the first of many axe swings at the US Europe relationship. Unfortunately for Europe, they just had to take the lecturing and smile because the war in Ukraine is raging on and they would like US support.

So far, the Trump admin does not seem reluctant when it comes to supporting Ukraine, but since Trump ran on making peace, they kind of have to try something. The US withdrew most of its aid to Ukraine and right now mostly just shares intelligence. Europe is currently shouldering most of the aid. The US also hit Ukraine with political attacks and called into question the legitimacy of the Zelensky presidency.

The war itself is still raging, with Russia making tiny incremental gains. Putin does not want to freeze the conflict, but the Trump admin does. The Kremlin instituted a series of stalling tactics throughout 2025 aimed at the Trump admin to appear as if they want peace. The Russians engage in negotiations and give the appearance of progress, but ultimately will not commit to anything that does not equal Ukrainian capitulation. The Russians have gotten away with this multiple times throughout the year, mostly because the US does not really care what happens to Ukraine and Trump seems to really value what appears to be a one sided friendship with Putin.

While the Russians have been making small gains on the ground, Ukraine has been making tremendous gains damaging Russia’s energy infrastructure. In December alone, Ukraine launched a record 24 strikes on energy infrastructure. This included not just refineries, but also oil terminals and gas processing plants. At this pace, Russian energy will be in a terrible place by the end of next year. The Russians have been repairing these sites after Ukrainian strikes, but Ukraine has gotten smarter over the year. They started targeting parts of these facilities that can take years to repair. At some point, Russia will be forced to prioritize military fuel over civilian fuel to continue the war, and things might get very interesting.

I believe that in 2026 we begin the final phase of this war. Things are going to start to crack on both sides.

Where I was wrong: I believed that Trump would at some point realize that the Russians do not actually want peace and support Ukraine more. That never happened.

Wow, we’re at 950 plus words now and there is still so much more to say on Venezuela, AI, and the global order itself. This will have to be multiple parts, so part two next week. Thank you for reading, and Happy New Year!

Watch on YT:

In this video I’m going to give you some recent history and some analysis on the current situation.

If you prefer Youtube:

Buckle up.

Venezuela

Tensions between the United States and Venezuela have escalated, alongside a significant U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean near Venezuelan territory. The Trump administration has now deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group to join the destroyers and amphibious assault ships carrying Marines and F-35s. The Trump admin claims that this deployment is part of an expanded counter-narcotics operation targeting “narco-terrorist” organizations, including the Tren de Aragua gang, which it alleges is linked to the Maduro government. Ove the past few weeks multiple airstrikes on vessels suspected of drug trafficking have been conducted. According to the New York Times the Trump admin also authorized CIA operations in Venezuela. In response, the Venezuelan military is on a “wartime alert,” conducting daily exercises, mobilizing its Bolivarian Militia, and setting up its Russian-made air defense and anti-ship missile systems.

infographic by Ian Jones:

“Narco Traffickers”

Whether or not people in Venezuela’s government are involved in drug trafficking is actually irrelevant. Venezuela is mostly a transshipment route and doesn’t produce a significant amount of drugs. If it’s drugs the Trump admin was after they would be going after countries like Colombia and Mexico more heavily. I don’t doubt the Trump admin’s dedication to stopping drugs in general but when It comes to Venezuela, that’s not the issue. This narco trafficking rhetoric is propaganda against the Maduro regime.

Do I think a war is going to happen? It’s starting to look like it but I’m still conflicted.

I’ll cover this more in depth in a separate article.

Ukraine War

The Ukraine war appears to be in it’s third quarter. I’m projecting it coming to a conclusion either next year or 2027 the latest. Over the past four months, Ukraine has executed a highly effective and sustained long-range drone/missile campaign focusing heavily on disrupting Russia’s energy sector and logistics. They struck tons of oil refineries, fuel depots and gas processing plants deep inside Russian territory. These strikes have inflicted significant damage. The cumulative impact has been severe, leading to the suspension of operations at major plants, domestic fuel price hikes, and a reduction of Russian fuel exports to their lowest levels since early 2022.

This war is a battle of wills between the two countries and their economies are in dire straits. The issue for Ukraine is that it’s a democracy, meaning economic issues affect their leadership more negatively than an autocracy like Russia. Push comes to shove (and it will) Putin will just get more draconic to preserve his regime.

The US is currently politically hamstrung when it comes to the Ukraine war. The US admin seem unable to understand the conflict and President Trump has some kind of weird love-hate relationship with Putin. Worst, Europe seems to still be following their lead on negotiations. I’m projecting this is going to lead to a major disaster sometime next year to mid 2027.

Russia vs NATO

Over the past month, Russia and its ally Belarus have engaged in a significant escalation of hybrid warfare against NATO’s eastern flank, blending direct military provocations with cyber and psychological operations.

The most dramatic incident occurred on the night of September 9-10, when a swarm of 19 to 23 Russian drones flew into Polish airspace, forcing the closure of multiple airports and triggering the first ever NATO engagement of Russian assets over alliance territory, with allied jets shooting down several drones. This was followed by repeated, systematic drone incursions over critical infrastructure across Northern Europe, including the temporary shutdown of major airports in Copenhagen, Oslo, and Munich. Unidentified drones were also spotted over military bases and defense-related shipyards in Denmark and Germany. These physical provocations were augmented by conventional military jet incursions, including three Russian MiG-31s violating Estonian airspace on September 19 and Russian aircraft briefly breaching Lithuanian airspace in late October.

Yesterday, Lithuanian authorities authorized the shooting down of contraband smuggling balloons crossing from Belarus. These balloons have forced the closure of Vilnius airport four times in the last week.

Haiti

Haiti is currently in the grip of an extreme crisis, with warlords controlling major parts of the capital, Port-au-Prince, and expanding their violent reach into previously safe rural areas. This unchecked violence has led to a catastrophic humanitarian situation, with rampant killings, kidnappings, and sexual violence forcing over 1.4 million people from their homes and pushing nearly 5.7 million Haitians into food insecurity.

In response to this collapse of security, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2793 on September 30, 2025. This resolution, co-penned by the U.S. and Panama, authorizes the transformation of the struggling Kenya-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission into a much larger “Gang Suppression Force” (GSF). The new force is authorized to have up to 5,500 personnel and has a stronger mandate to conduct “counter-gang” operations.

Trump Trade Wars

Uhh… Idk man.

Thank you for reading. I created a new Substack where I’m going to be discussing how to survive artificial intelligence and the new age of global instability we’re in. First post is coming out later today, please go check it out:

Universal Dominance

Surviving and Dominating The New Age of AI & Instability.

By GlobalHitman

Helpful articles and videos for the dorks:

US Army War College: https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/russian-expansion/

Michael Sirkin:

James Mattis:

Shut up about NATO expansion:

It's a Youtube channel were this high school teacher in China talks about history and geopolitics. He's been gaining a lot of traction lately so I thought I should check out his content.

Let’s say we didn’t like what we heard, enjoy.

For those that don’t know, the bulk of my content will now be on Youtube.

Please like and subscribe.

Why? See post:

I wanted to give a quick update about the future of this Substack. After writing about geopolitics and war for the past few years, I’ve come to realize something: trying to be unbiased doesn’t pay. People say they want the truth, but most really just want their own worldview reinforced. That makes this kind of work… well, not very lucrative, and honestly, subscriptions have been trending down for a while.

I tried to cut through the noise, call things as they are, and not play for one team or the other. But the reality is that approach costs you readers, and eventually, it costs you time and money. I can’t justify putting out weekly posts when I’ve got other projects that are simply more rewarding, both personally and financially.

So here’s what’s changing:

• I won’t be posting weekly Substack articles anymore.

• Subscriptions will be paused

• If you’ve paid for a yearly subscription, just send me an email at Globalhitman@proton.me and I’ll refund you.

• I’ll still write occasionally, when I have something important to say.

• Most of my long form content going forward will be on YouTube

Thanks to those of you who’ve stuck around and supported the work, I really do appreciate it. I’m not disappearing, just shifting gears.

Stay tuned.

If you found value in this, please like the video and subscribe.

United States

BLS Head Fired Amid Controversial Jobs Report Revisions

The U.S. economy is at the center of a political firestorm after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued significant downward revisions to its jobs reports for previous months, erasing prior reported gains. The initial report for the last month already showed sharply slowing growth, with only 73,000 jobs added. In a move that Democrats, some Republicans and many economists have condemned as political interference, President Trump fired the head of the BLS shortly after the revised numbers were published. Critics argue the move is an attempt to undermine the credibility of the independent agency and pressure it over unfavorable economic data leading into an election cycle.

Read more

Melania Saves Ukraine?

Trump recalled a conversation with Melania during an interview: “I go home, I tell the First Lady: ‘I spoke with Vladimir today. We had a wonderful conversation,’” Trump said. “She said: 'Oh really? Another city was just hit.’” By saying that, Melania unconsciously or consciously helped Trump realize he was getting played. It cuts deep when your wife is signaling to you that you’re getting bested by another man. After that, Trump seemed to pivot and turn his attention toward Russia.

Trump initially said he would implement “severe tariffs” on Russia and people who do business with Russia, unless a peace deal is reached within 50 days. After this announcement, there was no serious movement on Russia’s side to negotiate. Trump then reduced the number down to 12 days and, not too long after, imposed sanctions on India for doing business with Russia.

Read more

The Trump White House dropped their action plan for AI on 7/23 and I though it was worth doing some analysis on.

Link: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Americas-AI-Action-Plan.pdf

United States

President Donald Trump has escalated his aggressive trade stance, threatening a new round of significant import tariffs, ranging from 20% to 50%, on 23 trading partners, including Canada, Japan, Brazil, the European Union, and Mexico. These proposed tariffs would be in addition to existing levies. Countries have until August 1st to negotiate individual trade deals to avoid these increases. This move has been condemned by the EU and Mexico as unfair and disruptive.

Separately, President Trump recently signed the "GENIUS Act" into law, establishing America's first federal framework for stablecoin crypto currencies.

Middle East

Gaza

The conflict in Gaza continues to be severe, with reports of numerous Palestinian deaths, including many seeking food aid. The UN has highlighted that children are dying of starvation before aid can reach them.

Syria

Syria has plunged into a new phase of violence on multiple fronts. Deadly clashes have erupted between rival Druze factions and local Bedouin groups. Syrian forces attempted to intervene to stop the fighting but were attacked by Israeli forces. The IDF claimed their strikes were intended to defend the Druze, and they also targeted Syrian government buildings. This appears to have been a costly misunderstanding of the situation.

Following the strikes, the Syrian government pulled back its forces, but the violence only escalated. Realizing their mistake, Israel eventually allowed government forces to advance in an effort to regain control. Unfortunately, this new Syrian government lacks the proper discipline within its ranks, and some of its forces are reportedly participating in the violence against civilians. The clashes remain ongoing.

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Even before Trump got elected, it was my prediction that negotiations would reach this point. Trump was going to try to negotiate as if Putin wants to stop the war, and he'll realize he got everything backwards. Over the last two weeks, it seemed like we were either at or nearing that point. So what now? The ball was in Trump's court, but Putin might also try to adjust his game.

Trump is also in a bit of a dilemma with his base though. They want "no war" and are pretty entrenched in Russian propaganda. For a good outcome to come out of this war, the US and/or Europe are going to have to put their foot down. So how do I define a good outcome in this war? Stopping the war with both the Russian and Ukrainian governments still intact, with a huge demilitarized zone between them.

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United States

Politics & Trade: President Trump this week leveraged the threat of new tariffs stating he would impose "very severe tariffs" on countries that trade with Russia if the war in Ukraine does not end within 50 days. This comes as the administration plans to increase the baseline reciprocal tariff rate to 15-20% and has threatened a 35% tariff on certain goods from Canada starting August 1st, if a deal is not reached.

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United States

Tragedy in Texas as Flash Floods Devastate Hill Country

A catastrophic flooding event has struck the Texas Hill Country, with torrential rains causing the Guadalupe River to surge to historic levels. As of Sunday, at least 82 people have been confirmed dead, with more than 40 still missing.

The flash floods, which struck early on the Fourth of July holiday, were most severe in Kerr County. The dead include 28 children, and among the missing are ten campers and a counselor from Camp Mystic, a girls' summer camp in Hunt. Rescue operations are continuing around the clock, with Texas Governor Greg Abbott calling the scene "horrendously ravaged." President Trump has signed a major disaster declaration for the area to expedite federal assistance

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