We’re at a key turning point in human history, and whoever becomes the next U.S. president will shape our future with every action they take, and don't take. Our history books are filled with monumental figures who seem almost mythical: Churchill, Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan, Wilhelm II, Caesar, Marcus Crassus, and countless more. These are people who commanded great power at pivotal moments in history, or were themselves the catalysts. Right now, we live in the time of Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Putin, Zelensky, Elon Musk, Xi, Macron, and a few others. Soon, they too will become these mythical figures, leaving behind a world shaped by their actions.
So… What’s On The Line?
Europe
We’re almost three years into the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the chances of this war ending within the next four years are quite high. This means the next sitting U.S. president will oversee the end of that conflict. Russia is a nuclear-armed country, and dealing with nations capable of such destruction requires finesse. According to the New York Times and leaked Department of Defense documents, supposedly obtained by The Economist and both Russia and Ukraine, this war has resulted in over one million casualties. Negotiating peace with this level of loss on both sides is going to be extremely challenging. Earlier this year, French President Macron announced that sending troops to Ukraine, if things start to look bad, is not off the table. Whether he's bluffing or not, who knows. For Russia, this will either be the failure of the century or a pyrrhic victory. It also remains to be seen if the Russian people will allow Putin’s regime to stay in power afterward.
The U.S. needs a leader with finesse, wisdom, and great management skills to prevent this situation from plunging into chaos.
“I do not regard the procuring of peace as a matter in which we should play the role of arbiter between different opinions…more that of an honest broker who really wants to press the business forward.” -Carl Von Bismarck
Middle East
With Hamas defeated and Hezbollah on the back foot, Israel has gained the upper hand in the Middle East. They only have one enemy capable of reaching them with missiles: Iran. Saudi Arabia's main threat in the region is also Iran. The U.S. considers Iran an adversary as well. Iran is in a lot of crosshairs, mostly due to its own actions of course. Iran is seeking to develop a nuclear weapon to secure its position in the world, which many in the region would not like. How this situation unfolds will depend on the next U.S. president.
China
China's economic situation is currently in dire straits. The country has been facing deflation because they haven't found a good way to turn their population into consumers. The Chinese Communist Party has been trying to resuscitate the economy by printing money. China transformed itself into the world's factory but also managed to make enemies of many nations, leading some countries to diversify away from China and take punitive economic actions. Now they have an excess of goods they can't sell, and their domestic population isn't buying them either. China's future also looks grim due to its aging demographics. The U.S. presidential election will have an impact on what happens with China, though it's less immediately significant than Ukraine or the Middle East; both candidates agree that they should oppose China, but they have different methodologies.
What Do I Think Of The Candidates?
Before I say anything, it’s worth remembering that sometimes, when the going gets tough, the tough get up and start marching. Weaker leaders have risen to the occasion in the past. When U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt died toward the end of World War II, his vice president, Harry Truman, had a huge task ahead of him. FDR was the only president to ever serve three terms and was a monumental figure. Truman had his personal doubts, but he rose to the occasion and made his mark.
What I’m saying is that either candidate has the potential, like all of us, to rise to the occasion. But we can't lie to ourselves, neither of these candidates, in their current form, could hold a candle to a figure like Otto von Bismarck. The Biden administration currently has the head of the CIA handling Middle East negotiations a spy chief is not typically seen as the most trustworthy figure in a government. Trump had his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, managing Middle East matters. Trump proposed an Israel-Palestine peace plan without giving the Palestinians a say in the matter, and a few years later, we have a war between Hamas and Israel. Not the most effective approach to diplomacy.
Still, we hope for the best. Thank you for reading
“Man cannot control the current of events. he can only float with them and steer” -Otto Von Bismarck
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