Failure - Ukraine War Update 11/1/2023
The Truth is the truth... Now What?
Last time we spoke about the Ukraine War we touched on how the fall season was coming around and how the Ukrainian Armed Forces had to make something big happen quick before the ground starts turning into mud. Mmmm… Well…
Ukraine’s summer offensive failed to breakthrough Russian defenses in a significant way. This is not even a knock on the Ukrainian troops, grinding through prepared defenses is a very difficult thing to do and they actually punched through in the Zaporizhzhia front. We all have to give credit where it’s due, the Russian military actually did a great job digging trenches, ditches, laying minefields, holding their lines and counter attacking.
The Ukrainian mud season is now upon us, this does not mean operations will stop but they will slow down in noticeable way. The ability of both sides to use vehicles will be limited but there should still be plenty of fighting.
So? What Does This Mean?
While Russia successfully defended from an all out breakthrough, they themselves did not get any significant offenses going. Ukraine still want’s to continue pushing but like we witnessed this summer it will take them some time. This is a long way to say unless these guys give up (and this winter is a good time to make peace), this war is going to last a bit longer.
A… Who?
Sometime probably in the beginning of October, the US secretly transferred over a batch of ATACMS (Tactical Ballistic Missiles) to Ukraine and it shocked the Russians. The US is playing a game of brinkmanship with Russia where they’re constantly crossing “red lines” to feel out what Russia will accept. Instead of transferring over ATACMS to Ukraine along with announcements, they decided to do it very quietly. One, to not get unwanted attention on the transfer and two, to not give Russia time to make threats and puff up their chest. ATACMS is already on the battlefield, you just have to deal with it, the move has already been made.
With ATACMS on the battlefield without Russian’s knowledge, Ukraine basically had a free play on their hands. They could hit a few targets before Russia realizes what they have and adjust to the range accordingly. I’ve been saying for a long time now, you can criticize Russia’s military for being stupid deservedly so, but no one can deny they are a learning organization and they do adjust.
Ukraine decided to use this free play on Friday Oct 20th on Russian Air Bases in Berdyansk and Luhansk. They destroyed around give or take 14 Russian helicopters and air defense systems.
The Little Town That Could
The small town of Avdiivka has been a torn at Russia’s side from the beginning of this war. While it’s located literally on the front lines in Donetsk, they’ve failed to take it time and time again. Recently, Russia decided that they were going to make another run for it and the results were catastrophic.
The small town is heavily fortified with minefields around it. Meaning you have limited options when making your approach. Russia decided to attack the town in force from multiple directions. They were met with Ukrainian drones, mines, artillery's and anti-tank weapons. Between October 10 and October 20 Russia reportedly lost around 109 armored vehicles trying to take Avdiivka, they lost more vehicles in that pursuit than Ukraine did in their entire summer offensive. On the flip side, Russia now surrounds the town on 3 sides. Unfortunately, even if they take the town in the end, this is an insane amount of vehicles to lose in that short amount of time this late into the war. It’s like they haven’t learned anything from past attacks on Avdiivka or they just don’t care.
If you remember Bakhmut, Russian high command probably wants to conduct a similar play.
By the time this war ends I don’t see how any of this will be worth it for Russia but if you do comment below.