It’s been a while since we’ve done one of these. I like to give these global updates to give people a visual of how things are currently oriented around them so that they can make better decisions. Please note that this is not an update on every single geopolitical event around the globe. This is not a research paper, this is an update on everything I personally have been paying attention to. If you have something you think I should also be looking at please leave a comment or DM me.
Buckle up.
Venezuela
Tensions between the United States and Venezuela have escalated, alongside a significant U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean near Venezuelan territory. The Trump administration has now deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group to join the destroyers and amphibious assault ships carrying Marines and F-35s. The Trump admin claims that this deployment is part of an expanded counter-narcotics operation targeting “narco-terrorist” organizations, including the Tren de Aragua gang, which it alleges is linked to the Maduro government. Ove the past few weeks multiple airstrikes on vessels suspected of drug trafficking have been conducted. According to the New York Times the Trump admin also authorized CIA operations in Venezuela. In response, the Venezuelan military is on a “wartime alert,” conducting daily exercises, mobilizing its Bolivarian Militia, and setting up its Russian-made air defense and anti-ship missile systems.
infographic by Ian Jones:
“Narco Traffickers”
Whether or not people in Venezuela’s government are involved in drug trafficking is actually irrelevant. Venezuela is mostly a transshipment route and doesn’t produce a significant amount of drugs. If it’s drugs the Trump admin was after they would be going after countries like Colombia and Mexico more heavily. I don’t doubt the Trump admin’s dedication to stopping drugs in general but when It comes to Venezuela, that’s not the issue. This narco trafficking rhetoric is propaganda against the Maduro regime.
Do I think a war is going to happen? It’s starting to look like it but I’m still conflicted.
I’ll cover this more in depth in a separate article.
Ukraine War
The Ukraine war appears to be in it’s third quarter. I’m projecting it coming to a conclusion either next year or 2027 the latest. Over the past four months, Ukraine has executed a highly effective and sustained long-range drone/missile campaign focusing heavily on disrupting Russia’s energy sector and logistics. They struck tons of oil refineries, fuel depots and gas processing plants deep inside Russian territory. These strikes have inflicted significant damage. The cumulative impact has been severe, leading to the suspension of operations at major plants, domestic fuel price hikes, and a reduction of Russian fuel exports to their lowest levels since early 2022.
This war is a battle of wills between the two countries and their economies are in dire straits. The issue for Ukraine is that it’s a democracy, meaning economic issues affect their leadership more negatively than an autocracy like Russia. Push comes to shove (and it will) Putin will just get more draconic to preserve his regime.
The US is currently politically hamstrung when it comes to the Ukraine war. The US admin seem unable to understand the conflict and President Trump has some kind of weird love-hate relationship with Putin. Worst, Europe seems to still be following their lead on negotiations. I’m projecting this is going to lead to a major disaster sometime next year to mid 2027.
Russia vs NATO
Over the past month, Russia and its ally Belarus have engaged in a significant escalation of hybrid warfare against NATO’s eastern flank, blending direct military provocations with cyber and psychological operations.
The most dramatic incident occurred on the night of September 9-10, when a swarm of 19 to 23 Russian drones flew into Polish airspace, forcing the closure of multiple airports and triggering the first ever NATO engagement of Russian assets over alliance territory, with allied jets shooting down several drones. This was followed by repeated, systematic drone incursions over critical infrastructure across Northern Europe, including the temporary shutdown of major airports in Copenhagen, Oslo, and Munich. Unidentified drones were also spotted over military bases and defense-related shipyards in Denmark and Germany. These physical provocations were augmented by conventional military jet incursions, including three Russian MiG-31s violating Estonian airspace on September 19 and Russian aircraft briefly breaching Lithuanian airspace in late October.
Yesterday, Lithuanian authorities authorized the shooting down of contraband smuggling balloons crossing from Belarus. These balloons have forced the closure of Vilnius airport four times in the last week.
Haiti
Haiti is currently in the grip of an extreme crisis, with warlords controlling major parts of the capital, Port-au-Prince, and expanding their violent reach into previously safe rural areas. This unchecked violence has led to a catastrophic humanitarian situation, with rampant killings, kidnappings, and sexual violence forcing over 1.4 million people from their homes and pushing nearly 5.7 million Haitians into food insecurity.
In response to this collapse of security, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2793 on September 30, 2025. This resolution, co-penned by the U.S. and Panama, authorizes the transformation of the struggling Kenya-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission into a much larger “Gang Suppression Force” (GSF). The new force is authorized to have up to 5,500 personnel and has a stronger mandate to conduct “counter-gang” operations.
Trump Trade Wars
Uhh… Idk man.
Thank you for reading. I created a new Substack where I’m going to be discussing how to survive artificial intelligence and the new age of global instability we’re in. First post is coming out later today, please go check it out:
Loved the “idk man” 🫶