The Ghost of Charles De Gaulle
A new world, a less stable one.
The current US-led world order was built on trust and mutual interests. It was the first world order in history built on goodness. Not that everyone was good all the time, but goodness was a central value around which countries aligned themselves. This order has been slowly eroding over time because the US stopped caring about its maintenance and frankly lacked the vision and leadership to guide everyone forward. No one would disagree that the order needed reform, but what’s been happening these past few weeks has been destruction.
“Till Death Do Us Part”
Marriages are built on mutual trust, but once that trust is broken, it will never be the same; two minutes of infidelity can break a 15 year marriage. Due to a series of decisions by its current administration, the US has lost trust among its closest allies:
The Trump administration stands in stark contrast to the Biden administration in terms of foreign policy. While Biden was not always decisive at key moments, he sought to maintain the US-led global order. From supplying Ukraine with weapons to protecting the Red Sea against Houthi missiles, everything was conducted through coalitions. The new Trump administration is indifferent to the order and even seems inclined to eat his own.
Details, Details, Details…
The US has long asked Europe to increase its NATO contributions. This was a fair request, as the US, due to the sheer size of its economy, spends more than all other members combined. Over the past few decades, European powers allowed their militaries to degrade to dangerously low levels, partly because they haven't faced significant threats for a long time. It's challenging to justify high defense spending to a population that feels no immediate threat. Europe instead chose to invest in social services rather than defense.
Europeans, and Westerners generally, naively believed in a form of "capitalist peace." They thought that increased economic integration with Russia would deter conflict. There's a saying: "no two countries with McDonald's have ever fought a war against each other." Germany, for instance, built the Nord Stream pipelines despite security concerns, believing trade would secure peace. Germany became reliant on cheap gas, which accounted for 65% of their supply. Perhaps the movie Scarface wasn't translated into German, because one of its iconic lines is "never underestimate the other guy's greed." After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, this illusion of capitalist peace shattered. Russia immediately tried coercing Germany by threatening to cut off its gas. Lenin famously said, "The capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them," a statement now painfully relevant. NATO countries began increasing defense spending, and most reached the 2% target.
Similar to Germany's gas dependency, US allies became heavily reliant on American leadership and security. Trump's recent words and actions has shattered their perception of American reliability. They are now questioning whether the US would genuinely defend them if push came to shove. Asking themselves: is the US working with Russia? With Tulsi Gabbard in her current position, can sensitive intelligence be safely shared without leaks?
Instead of increasing NATO contributions in cooperation with the US, allies now look to increase military spending to operate independently of the US. This small distinction is important, it means the US is losing influence, not gaining it. Before the new Trump administration, this outcome was not what anyone in the US intended.
De Gaulle
General Charles De Gaulle was a very arrogant Frenchman, but he had his moments. After the French defeat against the Nazis, he retreated to Britain, where he established the Free French Army and fought alongside allied forces. He was the first to march into Paris after its liberation. De Gaulle argued that France should freely pursue its interests and not be bound by alliances. He criticized NATO, saying, "NATO is a subterfuge. Thanks to NATO, Europe is placed under the dependence of the United States without appearing to be so." He also pursued nuclear weapons for France, declaring, "No country without an atom bomb could properly consider itself independent." In speeches and memoirs, De Gaulle expressed that France should be a dominant power speaking to both the USSR and the West as an equal, dependent on no one.
De Gaulle’s ideas influence France’s decisions to this day. In 1966, De Gaulle withdrew France from NATO’s integrated military command, granting France greater autonomy. France re-integrated in 2009, but with full sovereignty over its military decisions. Today, France conducts independent military operations separate from Europe and the US. Their self-reliance makes them Europe's most capable military, uniquely positioned to lead Western Europe as trust in the United States reaches an all-time low.
The current French president, Emmanuel Macron, understands this position and has stepped into the role. He is leading Europe's conversation on the Ukraine war and has offered France’s nuclear umbrella to other European nations. Macron was also the first to suggest that sending French troops to Ukraine should not be ruled out.
The world order as we knew it isn't gone, but it has taken a huge shot across the bow and is slowly sinking. Every country now knows that within four short years, they themselves could be treated as an enemy by the US. The US still conducts anti-terror operations in the Middle East and Africa, and NATO countries still train together. But like a marriage without trust, it’s slowly eroding.
How long until the relative peace is completely shattered and European powers begin to pursue their independent foreign interests again?
"Goodness was a central value" & other fairy tales ...