The War Iran War So Far - Learning the Wrong Lessons from History
What would Ike do?
The United States and Israel have been at war for 15 days now. Usually, a state power fighting against the US this long would mean that the US flag is already hoisted up on their presidential palace. Let alone the US being allied with the IDF, which is the most proven fighting force in the Middle East. So far, there are no US flags flying in Tehran.
What went wrong?
Fight Club
There’s a notion among GWOT veterans in the US that we lost the war in Iraq (not really) and Afghanistan because the US “didn’t go hard enough” or made stupid decisions militarily. That we lost and our comrades died because of bad generals. These veterans then go on famous podcasts and TV stations and repeat their assessment of the situation. After all, who would understand the war better than the veterans who fought and bled in it?
As a veteran myself who’s been in these conversations with other veterans more times than I can count, I can tell you that they’re wrong. If you didn’t serve, you can’t say that of course, because they’ll try to pull rank on you. What if I told you that 90%+ of veterans don’t know much about that war? How could I possibly say something like this? What a lot of people don’t understand is that the military is very job focused. Each service member has a very small role to play and, relatively, they all do a good job. But in contrast, the US Department of Defense is a huge organization, probably the biggest in the world. Even some generals working at the Pentagon don’t fully grasp the whole thing. It’s almost impossible.
Now ask yourself, is Sgt. Highspeed Joe on the “Whiskeydink Podcast” telling you about a war, or is he telling you about his tiny role in a huge multi continent war that he was fortunate enough to be a part of? If you want to test this, ask Highspeed Joe: “The bullets in your rifle in Afghanistan, how did they get to you?” I believe that people in the US not understanding this partly led us to our situation today.
Blame can also be put on America’s education system. Kids should get assigned at least one Max Hastings style book about a big war so they could grasp the complexity. Instead, in the US you get one big old history book that in three or four paragraphs pays lip service to a war and then you just move on. I always say that US citizens are the most powerful people in the world. It’s your duty as an American to learn as much about the world and life as you can. You are the most powerful country. The world depends on your vote. But uh… God help us.
How does this relate to Iran today?
Delusions of the Honored
The Trump administration came into power telling themselves and telling us that they were not going to repeat the same mistakes as Bush. It feels like that’s all they’re doing, so much so that it almost feels like they’re playing prevent defense. The issue is these guys don’t really read books. They don’t actually understand at a high level why Bush failed. They know the Fox News talking points and they know “Highspeed Joe’s” point of view. That’s about it.
Where Bush failed didn’t have much to do with the military. Bush failed because of politics. Obama came after him and failed again because of politics. Trump after him failed again because of politics. Unfortunately the hot potato blew up in Biden’s face because he too didn’t understand the politics.
What do I mean by politics? I mean people.
The US failed to understand that if you abruptly fire a bunch of people who know nothing but power and guns, like Saddam’s Fedayeen, they’re going to be recruited by people looking for their services. In Iraq’s case, jihadist guerrilla groups. The US failed to get the people of Afghanistan to care about their democracy project. The US failed to care about democracy in Afghanistan themselves whenever they chose to meddle in it. The US failed when they negotiated the withdrawal with the Taliban without involving the Afghan government.
Do you see how none of this involves any gunfighting? Just people talking. Politics.
Even though we must blame these presidents for their lack of wisdom, I almost don’t want to. This is very much a problem that has plagued America for a long time. There are no mandatory leadership institutions in the US that retain this kind of knowledge over time and teach it. If we did, would people even listen or just call them the “deep state” and move on?
Everyone wants to talk about “military failures,” when honestly, the Taliban just played better politics than the US did. After the withdrawal agreement, the Taliban began spreading disinformation about what the deal was and bribing local tribal leaders. They told people that the Afghan government was abandoned by the West and that the US handed leadership to the Taliban. They also told them that cooperating with the illegitimate government in Kabul was now treason. That was not the deal at all, but that was what people heard. The Taliban stepped up attacks on Afghan security forces but not US troops, furthering their propaganda. After that Europe withdrew and the US withdrawal was announced. Of course Afghanistan fell so quickly. They already won psychologically. The US and Afghan government failed to stop the disinformation and support each other.
War is a tool that should be used to bring about favorable conditions to further your political goals. In this instance the Taliban played it flawlessly. Think about it, every successful US war in history were succeeded because they achieved a desirable political end state. Japan, Germany, South Korea, Bush wasn’t stupid when we was nation building, just in over his head.
Iran
The current war in Iran failed before it even started. Why? again, wars should always be fought with the goal of an achievable political end state. Even better if it’s a tool of last resort. Why? Because the politics of a state has a huge influence on the physical outcomes of that state.
For example, let’s say someone points a gun at you and steals your car. What would you do? Eventually go buy another car, right? Why? That person taking your car didn’t change the fact that you like having a car. They didn’t change your politics. In the grand scheme of your life, they didn’t do anything.
The US secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, stated multiple times over the last two weeks that the mission of the US is not regime change.
Hegseth: “The U.S. has short term, clearly defined goals in Iran. First, destroying Iranian missile stockpiles, missile launchers and their defense industrial base. Second, destroy the Iranian navy. And finally, permanently deny Iran the ability to have nuclear weapons.”
What’s wrong with this list of goals? No desired political end state. What’s going to happen after? Iranian regime are going to build it again, and even better this time, with tons of new lessons learned from the war. So did you win anything? No. You just wasted a bunch of money that could have been used on something more productive. Calculating opportunity costs to you and your allies is important.
“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed.”
-Dwight D. Eisenhower
DoD aside, Trump seems to be a slight bit wiser in this arena than the likes of Hegseth. Trump is talking about political outcomes. So far it seems like he wanted a Venezuela style situation:
“The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates. It’s not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead.”
It seems like the war itself undermined his desired political outcome. So we already got the cart before the horse. Both him and Israeli prime minister Netanyahu also want the Iranian people to rise against the regime. But thousands of them died doing just that two months ago. The people that did it to them weren’t shooting missiles. They were shooting AKs.
Is there a plan for the thousands of guys in the streets with AKs? No. Is there clear communication to the Iranian people? No. Just confusion. One side is talking “no regime change” and another side is talking “kind of” regime change.
What is the common theme here? The politics is all fucked up, and if that’s fucked up, so is everything below it.
Ok I’m at 1500+ words, enough writing for today. We’ll talk more next week.