Ukraine War update 1/27/23 - The Calm Before The Storm
Chess, Poker, Bridge... Let's play a game.
Our first Ukraine war update of 2023. Haven’t wrote one of these in a while I forgot how much I enjoy dorking out on these things, as soon as I started writing I felt the rush again. There’s nothing crazy in terms of the battlefield since last time but what’s going on right now will impact how the rest of the war goes. Let’s get into it!
The Dark But Time Tested Way
One area where you have to give credit to Russia and Putin is that on some level they’re being real with themselves. They realized that their military is not as good as advertised they switch tactics once, now they’re switching again. This time they’re going to use the time tested method of throwing bodies at the problem and hoping to overwhelm their enemy. Russia said they would draft 300k people to fight but there are rumors that It will be way more than 300K and “Ukrainian intelligence” is saying it will be 500k. Russia is most likely now in the process of training these conscripts and getting ready to send them out to fight in a few months.
Russians are betting that even though the Ukrainians might be more skilled and better organized they’re not going to win a 5:1 battle.
Russia is now playing Chess, they haven’t been able to play Poker since the start of the war, US Intelligence seems to be all over the Kremlin. This means that every move they make is out in the open for everyone to see, no hidden cards. You can still win while playing Chess, you just have to be so good at what you do that you’re unstoppable.
Bridge Players
Seeing as the Russians are mobilizing people, NATO generals had to think of a counter move. They decided to give Ukraine infantry fighting vehicles and modern tanks. Why would they do that? Well for one mobility. Think of old militaries for a second. Imagine being on foot in 1280 and somebody gave you a horse. You went from moving at the speed of a man to the speed of a horse. Same with IFVs, you now move at the speed of an IFV which is around 40mph. Doesn’t seem like much but it’s way better than being on foot. IFVs are also immune to small arms fire meaning you’re going to need some anti-tank weapons to put it out of commission. If you don’t have any of that whelp…. IFVs can drop you off on the battlefield and also give you fire support. The US used them a lot in their Quick Reaction Forces (The guys that came when you called for backup/medivac) in the middle east wars.
Tanks Tanks Tanks MF
This is where the Tanks come in. Now that some of Ukraine’s infantry can move a bit faster, they should be able to keep up with tanks. Tanks by themselves are very vulnerable but a tank with infantry actively supporting it and vice versa can be a very powerful combination. Both tank and infantry can cover each others vulnerabilities. As infantry you take out drones and enemy anti-tank weapons while the tank takes out that sniper in that building a couple blocks down that’s been bothering you. Now that Ukraine will have more IFVs, they can add more “speed & surprise” to their flanks. Also, they can probably take full advantage of the tank’s capabilities if they break through Russian lines and really push.
NATO is hoping with more mobility and firepower Ukraine will be able to continue fighting even though they’re outnumbered.
The Lord Smiled On Europe
With Russian Gas out of the question, Europe was in for a long winter. God smiled upon them, luckily there’s a heat wave in Europe and this winter is not as cold as it usually is. This is bad for Ukrainians because they were betting on the cold hard surface to make maneuvers on Russia but great for everyone in the rest of Europe that was supposedly going to freeze to death.
“Europe’s freakish winter heatwave breaks records”
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Solid analysis. 🫡