Ukraine War Update 6/10/2023 - The Storm

LACE YOUR BOOTS! The Spring Offensive in ON!

The weather is good, the ground is solid, and the battlefield is set. The long awaited Ukraine spring offensive has begun, Russia switched from being the offensive force to defenders. Alright, no more pleasantries, let’s dive right into it.

Wooo

Last time we did an update, we talked about Ukraine setting up the battlefield and the mind games that was happening. Russia was digging trenches and setting up in-depth defenses, but they were facing a dilemma when it came to figuring out where to place their troops and equipment. For example you don’t want to place most of your troops in the south and then Ukrainian offensive pushes north, that would be catastrophic. IYKYK *wink*

Russia wanted to give Ukraine less options when it comes to what directions they could push. So right after the Ukrainian offensive got underway, Russia allegedly blew up the Kakhovka Dam. The reason is to flood the areas downstream and make crossing the river more difficult, also the dam itself could of been used as a means to cross. Blowing it means the river is harder to cross so you need less troops to be in that area, that allows Russia the freedom to relocate those troops where they think they’ll need them more.

Let me draw it out for you:

Now, the blowing of the dam brought up tons of controversy because both sides denied doing it and pointed the finger at the other. But with all the information currently available it all points to Russia doing it.

Let me lay it all out:

The Khakovka dam is 30 meters (98ft) tall and 2 miles long, it was built in 1956 by the Soviet Union which both modern day Russia and Ukraine were a part of.

This dam also serves as a bridge.

Old picture of dam

The dam has been in Russian control since very early in the war.

Now understand this, since last year disinformation about blowing up the dam was already happening. Blowing up a dam is a war crime so no one would just blatantly do it, they want plausible deniability. Russia claimed that the Ukrainians were going to blow up the dam and that they already fired at it using a HIMARS rocket artillery system. Ukraine then countered their claim saying that Russia was only saying that because they’re going to to do it themselves.

So at this point, if Russia actually thinks Ukraine is going to do it they would then guard the dam and make sure it’s secure right?

On June 6th, the dam blew up. So how did it happen?

To blow a huge dam like this you have to put a crazy amount of explosives on the inside. For Ukraine to have blown it up using artillery from the outside it would take time and an insane amount of artillery. That would give Russian forces time to respond with their own artillery and record what was happening. No way you could keep that a secret, so that’s off the table.

Testimony from civilians in the area claim that it was one huge bang, not multiple. Seismic data from a Norwegian seismic array, Norsar also confirms this.

Kakhovka dam, blown up

Ukraine does not currently have a bomb that’s big enough to take out a dam that huge in 1 or 2 blasts. Even if they did, Russian air defense would have spotted them, shot at them and there would be clear evidence of an air war. So the only option is to drive in loads of explosives to make this happen.

How would the Ukrainians sneak past the Russians with loads of explosives into a dam “they already know they might attack” and not notice them? Wow these Ukrainians must be driving invisible stealth trucks or the Russians are the dumbest people in the world.

Last thing I’ll say on this is, unlike the Russian plan I laid out for you above. Ukraine does not have a strategic battlefield reason to blow up this dam, it actually just hinders them. Their advantage in this war is in being mobile, Russia advantage is in forcing a grind. If Ukraine blew up this dam, they would have a laugh at the Russians in Crimea. But they would also be shooting themselves in the foot battlefield wise and damage their relations to NATO countries by doing a blatant war crime. NATO literally has eyes in the sky and is listening to communications.

RC-135 Surveillance Plane

Russia was in control of the dam so the burden of proof is on them, so far they haven’t provided anything.

The Offence is ON

A day after the dam got blown up, Ukraine confirmed they kicked off their offensive. Some fighting already began on Sunday, June 4 which also add the point above, Russia saw it coming and last minute denied some territory by blowing the dam. Forcing Ukrainians to move their troops around the river to the north instead and come south where Russia already set up tons of defenses. The Ukrainians are pushing on 3 axis, one east towards Bakhmut one south towards Zaporizhia and one south east towards Adviika (Just giving general directions, not specific)

The Ukrainian goal here is to either outright break Russia lines or create a flank they can exploit. Russia’s goal here is to defend as best as they can and possibly counter attack.

I believe what happens here will determine the rest of this war, thank you for reading.